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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."